The exacerbation of the fuel crisis in Idlib: causes and motives
Almost a month has passed since the largest fuel crisis occurred in Idlib, which is controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Salvation Government (SG). The region has been suffering from a shortage in the supply of diesel, gasoline and gas, which led to a huge congestion in the places where fuel is sold.
The fuel crisis coincided with the onset of the winter season, the fighting that broke out between the HTS and factions of the Syrian National Army, and the announcement of the "Watad" company - the main supplier of fuel in the Idlib region - to stop working.
In the shadow this crisis, 5 major companies, who were licensed by SG to secure fuel have emerged. That was exactly why Watad stopped its activity. These companies were able to obtain a small amount of fuel that entered from Turkey through the Bab al-Hawa crossing. They also worked on securing diesel from the northeastern Syria, through the areas controlled by the National Army, after the Levant Front-affiliated “Imdad” company agreed to secure fuel for the HTS-controlled areas without transit fees.
Originally, Idlib relies mainly on fuel coming from the Bab al-Hawa crossing, as the quantities coming from the Hamran crossing in northeastern Aleppo constitute only a secondary source, because it is small, does not include gas, and diesel is of poor quality.
In general, Idlib's markets are still suffering mainly from the absence of gasoline and gas, as the five companies operating in the HTS-controlled areas have filed so far to provide any quantities coming from outside Syria, with the exception of an amount that entered through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing.
Accordingly, the fuel crisis revealed a number of points related to the HTS' policies, which could be summarized as follows:
• The weakness of the economic model, that HTS has so far promoted. In fact, HTS used this propaganda as a pretext for its attack on the areas controlled by the National Army, bragging that it would apply such a model in the areas it attacked recently. Tahrir al-Sham actually depends on a single crossing with Turkey, which could collapse at any moment.
• Using fuel as a weapon in the clashes between factions; as it appeared that part of the HTS’ attack on other factions aimed at controlling fuel entry and crossing points in the northern countryside of Aleppo, especially when factions allied with HTS took control of the main Hamran crossing with the areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces. On the other hand, however, some factions of the National Army prevented the flow of fuel to the HTS areas for several days in way to exert pressure on it.
• HTS was able to quickly and easily dismantle the only fuel company that controls the sector, replacing by others close or affiliated to it. This indicates high flexibility of the administrative system of HTS.
• The absence of any support from aid organizations in terms of fuel for cooking and heating as their programs rely on local sources that depend on importing such commodities. HTS has no programs to help civilians in terms of fuel. Its concern is the fighting among factions.
In conclusion, the solution for the fuel crisis in Idlib is primarily linked to restoring the flow of fuel via the Bab al-Hawa crossing. However, Turkey seems to be locking that completely for reasons related pressuring HTS after the latter’s attack on Afrin. All that indicates HTS and SG’s miscalculations politically and militarily and the impact of that on civilians under their administration.