Signing of the gas transport deal between Lebanon and Egypt: What is its impact on Syria?
On June 21, 2022, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt signed an agreement to ship Egyptian gas through Jordan and Syria to Lebanon, which provides for the transfer of 650 million cubic meters of gas annually to the Deir Ammar power station in Lebanon.
This came after energy-related moves in the region, as each of the American mediator in the issues of demarcation of the maritime boundary between Lebanon and Israel, and the European Commission official flew to both Israel and Egypt to discuss the supply of gas to the European Union countries.
Jordan had already hosted a meeting in September 2021, that was attended by the energy ministers of the four countries, i.e. Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon; for the purpose of presenting a work plan and a timetable for the delivery of gas to Lebanon, which was determined between 4 and 6 months. However, the agreed-upon duration passed without actually achieving anything.
The United States of America had previously approved the project on August 19, 2021 and it has recently renewed its approval after the signing of the last agreement in June 2022. This comes as a re-production of the Arab Gas Pipeline project, whose implementation actually began at the beginning of the third millennium and most of its parts were completed. This means that the concerned states have already had the necessary infrastructure for implementing such a project, with the need to maintain this infrastructure as a result of accumulated depreciation.
The project faces technical, economic and security challenges. One of which is that Syria will be allowed to obtain part of the electricity quantities due to the passage of gas through its territory. The project may also contribute to increasing these quantities that will reach the country in the future.
In any case, to implement the project, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon need to be exempted from sanctions imposed by the United States on those cooperating with the Syrian regime, Such an exemption enables these states to deal with the Syrian regime in energy issues related to the project. This may happen with the US State Department confirming to give more assurances to these countries, which may be in the form of a memorandum or an official announcement from the Office of Foreign Assets Control at the Treasury Department.
It is expected that the regime will actually benefit from a share of 8% in the framework of this project. Despite it is a small amount, it may be a reasonable addition that could improve the situation of the crumbling electrical network in Syria with no more than half an hour of additional daily power feeding. However, the regime’s greatest benefit comes in the context of cooperation with the country's environment and breaking the isolation through the issue of exempting countries from the sanctions imposed by the US. Moreover, the regime may find in this occasion a window to re-discuss other projects compatible with the recent regional framework and the interests of the major powers in the region.